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About 7 months. I know a little technical analysis TA and rely on the gifted for their kindly shared thoughts. My 9 to 5 has some, but little time during the day to check the charts and chat groups to try and stay in profit.
For the first four months I was very unsuccessful but learned a lot from some very talented people and spent who knows how many hours watching YouTube Vids over and over only to continue to lose profit. Really, I routinely get blown away at just how accurate they are. Something I dreamed of doing maybe in a couple of years. I truly feel trading bliss due to the scripts and at a price that is unbelievable.
Started drawing my own lines doing all the good stuff. I found Crypto Nomad and got his indicators, having the indicator when you are starting out is awesome! I keep one TV chart with just nomads indicators and always check it before going into my trades. Keep it up nomad looking forward to the platform release! Dom I see a lot of value in having the right tools for the job and I am always searching to aid my cryptocurrency trading, or any trading for that matter.
I was determined to track down Nomad and talk more about it. I recently joined a chat room and hey what do you know there is a CryptoNomad user, could this be the same person. I sent a DM, made the purchase and from that day I look back now and only wish I had found this sooner! Great work Nomad — your script tools are a Godsend VinPetrol I initially used these indicators to scalp coupled with targets and direction in mind. However it has evolved into the scripts being quintessential to be able to move into and out of positions without the need to market sell or buy of course barring pump and dumps.
Quite simply put they are a collection of the best tools I have used. If scalping is your thing look no further. However, the price is full of noise, and cutting through the noise can be extremely difficult. Quite contrary. Our team of experts at TSG has developed and used with a lot of success pure price action trading strategies. We hope we busted another myth that is so widely spread in the trading community. This is a very simple trade setup that works with any instrument stocks, forex, commodities, cryptocurrency , etc.
And, just to prove to you that you can find an edge outside of the price action trading strategies, the Holy Grail trading system uses two technical indicators. In theory, the stronger the trend is the higher the ADX reading will be. So, the ADX is a non-directional indicator or a strong trend indicator. Here is how the ADX works: If the ADX is moving higher and higher and at the same time the price is moving upwards, then it signals a strong bullish trend.
On the other hand, if the ADX is moving higher and higher and at the same time the price is moving downward, then it signals a strong bearish trend. The Holy Grail trading system is designed to capture the first retracement after a strong trend upwards or downwards was established. As a general rule, the first pullback in a bullish or bearish trend is the most profitable trade setup. Secondly, the outcome of this trading setup is very predictable, in the sense that the two following possible trading scenarios have the highest probability to happen: A retest of the previous swing high low.
The profit margins in this scenario depend on how far the pullback has gone. Secondly, the prevailing trend resumes and a new continuation leg to the upside downside begins. An ADX reading above the 30 levels is enough to signal that a strong trend is underway.
If we wait too long and the ADX reaches higher reading, the trend may be overextended and we might be late to the party. The ADX reading above 30 is a good way to formulate the presence of a strong trend and filter weak versus strong trends.
See the Tesla stock chart below: The second trading rules seek to frame the retracement in price pullback. Learn more about forex pullback indicator strategies here. We wait for the first retracement to the period EMA. Keep in mind; we want to monitor the first retracement to the exponential moving average, not the second or the third. It makes sense for the ADX to follow the lead of the price action and turn down.
The ADX must hold above the 30 levels to confirm that the prevailing trend is strong enough to sustain its momentum. A break of that candle high will trigger our buy order. Learn how to master candlestick trading in our best candlestick PDF guide. There is no room for interpretation here. The first trading advantage that comes with this approach is that you can better quantify the risk. Keep in mind that we must hold above the period EMA in order for the Holy Grail signal to remain valid.
In other words, you place the SL below the swing low left behind by the pullback. Secondly, the forex take profit stop loss has two approaches: First, trail the stop loss below the period EMA and ride the trend. Secondly, you can look to take profits at the most recent swing high. The Holy Grail sell signals work the same but in reverse.
Holy Grail desktop As you can see, the desktop of the strategy consists of one simple Exponential Moving Average 20 , applied to Close prices, and the ADX indicator with standard parameters and the marked level The idea of the strategy is that ADX shows the strength of the trend on a certain period. Some traders think that a reversal of this indicator top-down signals a trend reversal but this is not always true, the correctness of this idea depends on whether we are trading in a flat or trend.
We do not care about flats, so this is what the EMA 20 is necessary for: its slope shows the direction of the current trend. A signal to buy A signal to buy by the Holy Grail forms when ADX rises above 30, following the growth of the price; after that, the price must pull back to the EMA 20 and touch it.
When the candlestick that has touched the EMA closes, place a buying order above the high of the candlestick with the initial Stop Loss below its low. As for the Take Profit , place it slightly below the highest local high that formed after the price pulled back to the EMA If the next candlestick does not trigger the buying order, and its high turns out below the preceding candlestick, place the order above this candlestick.
And if its low renews the low of the previous candlestick, place the SL below the former. Of course, ADX will be falling alongside the price. It would be simple to improve these results by moving stop losses to break even after a certain period of time on every trade. This is because the strongest winners usually will only retest the entry, if at all, relatively quickly. Even the Holy Grail has Pitfalls The holy grail exists, but it has to be handled with caution.
You can find the grail by trading the right instruments that move with maximum volatility, i. You do not have to be right or forecast the major moves: you just have to be there, cut your losers short, and let your winners run. The natural tendency of the market to produce fat tails will do your work for you. There are two major pitfalls that this might lead you to.
The first is that you will be better served by a more intelligent exit strategy than simply aiming for a fixed reward to risk multiple. You need to be booking wins above 10 R:R, ideally towards 25 R:R or even beyond, but each trade will be different. Look to exit around those levels but use some intelligence and discretion. Also, being prepared to move stops to break even when the trade is a certain distance or time in profit should help.
This will inevitably cause very large losing streaks which will severely test both your mental strength and your money management strategy. The grail gives gold, but it is hot to touch and burns the unwary! Do you have what it takes to sit through twenty or more losing trades in a row? Do you have a money management strategy that will properly protect you from ruin should you begin with a long losing streak?
Will you be diversified and uncorrelated enough in order to keep losing streak risk to a minimum? One final danger is worth a mention. It is natural to try to filter entries. However it is very problematic to distinguish entries that are likely to reach a ratio of Furthermore, missing just one of these winners will set back your overall expectancy, unless the method used will also filter out at least 25 losing trades at the same time.
These are some questions to ponder and investigate. Spend some time back testing. The holy grail has been placed in your hands! If the most volatile instruments are traded in this style, it is possible to be nicely profitable over time without having to really make any analysis or decisions. Despite that, this path has some serious pitfalls that must be avoided intelligently. Back to the Data We can begin by taking a look at the historical data showing how entries upon next bar breaks of H4 engulfing candles performed on the most volatile instruments from to , a three year period, depending upon the reward to risk multiples that might have been selected as targets for trade exits: This table contains two immediately useful pieces of information.
Firstly, we would have taken a total of 2, trades. Secondly, the positive expectancy per trade rises dramatically until a reward to risk ratio of is reached, after which it rises very slowly before falling off a cliff at above This data is not shown in the above table, but of those 2, trades taken, only were winners. These numbers would put a severe strain on any kind of money management strategy, as the probability of suffering enormous losing streaks would be extremely high.
It is more likely than not there was a streak of between and consecutive losing trades during that three year period. Selective Entries Our problem is that we are currently set to enter a very large number of trades, the vast majority of which will be losers. If we can find a way to enter significantly less trades without suffering a proportionate fall in the expectancy per trade, we can worry less about the strain of likely losing streaks.
The danger here is that when profit rests upon a relatively small number of winning trades, you have to be very careful not to cut yourself out of many of those. Fortunately, using the historical data from to , there seems to be a relatively simple filter which does the job. To win large trades, a trend has to be present.
In an uptrend, the price pulls back within the trend making a major low, and then resumes its original direction. By only taking engulfing candles in such an uptrend that make a low lower than the previous 4 candles, or that directly follow such a candle, we are able to filter out a lot of the losing trades, without sacrificing too many of the winning trades.
Here is a table of the performance over the same three year period using this entry filter: It can be seen that overall, the total number of trades is reduced by slightly more than one third, but the winning trades tend to be reduced by a smaller percentage, resulting in rises in the expectancies from to The probable consecutive losing streak is reduced to somewhere between 80 and 90 trades, which is also an improvement.
It is noticeable that this filter had a strongly negative effect upon the Gold trades. Other entry filters that could improve performance would include entering only after engulfing candles with relatively small ranges, as the total positive distance required to be a winner is shorter. Time of day and trend filters can also be applied, although these can be pretty risky. For example, Gold tends to short well before the London open and long well after the London close.
The Yen pairs tend to perform well following the first candle representing the initial few hours of the Tokyo session. Bounces off major support or resistance levels can also be the origins of good trades, although it is surprising how many of the best resumptions within trends begin ahead of these levels. Selective Exits So far, we have only looked a methodology that exits at a fixed R multiple. This could be refined by setting a target based upon an average volatility or number of pips, so that trades with larger risks can be exited at smaller R multiples.
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