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On the other hand, weakness measured by indicators can portend a rate cut to encourage borrowing. It's also possible to predict an interest rate decision by taking note of major announcements and analyzing economic forecasts. Major Announcements Major announcements from central bank leaders can provide vital information about interest rate moves. They shouldn't be overlooked in sole favor of economic indicators.
When the board of any of the eight major central banks is scheduled to talk publicly, traders can glean insights into how a bank views inflation and, therefore, actions it might take. At a typical session, Bernanke reads a prepared statement on the U. Bernanke, in his statement and answers, was adamant that the U.
His statement was widely followed by traders who took it as a positive sign that the Federal Reserve would raise interest rates. This perception resulted in a short-term rally on the dollar in advance of the next rate decision. Forecast Analysis The second way to predict interest rate decisions is by analyzing forecasts. Interest rates moves can be anticipated.
As a result, brokerages, banks, and professional traders will already have a consensus estimate of what the rate may be. Traders can take four or five of these forecasts which should be very similar and average them for a more accurate prediction. When a Surprise Rate Change Occurs No matter how good a trader's research or how many numbers they've crunched before a rate decision is made, they still may be caught off guard by a surprise rate change by a central bank.
When this happens, a trader should understand in which direction the market will move. If there is a rate hike, the currency will appreciate. This means that traders will buy. If there is a rate cut, traders will probably sell and buy currencies with higher interest rates. Once a trader has determined the market movement, it is crucial to do the following: Act quickly.
The market tends to move at lightning speed on a surprise because all traders vie to buy or sell ahead of the crowd. Proper preparation and fast action can lead to a significant profit. Watch for a volatile trend reversal. Traders' perceptions may rule the market at the first release of data, but then the trend will most likely reverse back to its original path.
The following example illustrates the above steps: In early July , the Reserve Bank of New Zealand had an interest rate of 8. The rate had been steady over the previous four months and the New Zealand dollar was an attractive buy for traders due to its higher rate of return. While the quarter-percentage drop seems small, forex traders took it as a sign of the bank's fear of inflation and immediately withdrew funds or sold the currency and bought others even if those others had lower interest rates.
The US Dollar is strengthening with anticipation of a June rate increase, after string job numbers on Friday. At the start of the US session, the British pound declined sharply against the Euro to The Swiss Franc gained modestly against the euro at 1. Several leaders of the European Central Bank There is a strong sense of anxiety around the markets today, not only in Foreign Exchange but also stocks and commodities. It seems that a rate The exchange rate moved up to 1. The US dollar is currently under strong pressure against major currencies like the euro and a continuation of the upward trend cannot be achieved only through excellent job figures.