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So number of accounts is not very useful to show us absolute value. The second problem is that some accounts are held by humans, and some are held by smart contracts. When people enter into a smart contract which is the foundation of blockchain , those smart contracts sometimes create their own accounts. This applies to money — and digital money — as well. Transaction volume is a measure of liquidity: the more transactions are flowing through the Ethereum network, the more liquidity.
Courtesy Ryan Watkins of Messari The big takeaway from this webinar is that Ethereum is crushing bitcoin in transaction volume. Ethereum and Bitcoin, remember, are two different things. Bitcoin is just an asset, like gold. Ethereum is an entire asset class. This is why that blue bar has shot past the gold bar in Ethereum is just so much more useful.
Why invest in Ethereum? Blockchain developers: brilliant at math, terrible at naming things. The simplest way to think about gas is a transaction fee for using Ethereum. If everyone wants to use the machine at once, gas prices transaction fees go up. For savvy blockchain investors, this means gas is a built-in warning mechanism. When gas prices are high, it is a signal that you are investing on emotion.
Note this is not always true: if all the lemmings are jumping off the cliff, and you are running in the opposite direction, that could be a good sign. But usually you are trying to buy into some hot token at the same time as everyone else, which is why transaction fees are so high. High transaction fees also eat into your profits, if you make any profit. If you lose money, high transaction fees make your losses worse.
Avoid investing when transaction fees are high. On the other hand, total gas used is an extremely useful metric, as shown by Christine Kim in her terrific Research Note : Note this is not total gas fees, but total gas used. More demand generally means more value created. The chart above shows the increasing demand for Ethereum, which means it is being used to run increasingly valuable applications. In this sense, it is like measuring the demand for oil or gas. Firstly, there was a block reorganization on the Beacon PoS chain.
Essentially the chain briefly forked and this appears to have been due to certain validators running out of date software. As this was not an issue for Mainnet PoW Ethereum, the market largely ignored it at the time. This issue is currently being fixed and should not be possible on Mainnet, but clearly there have been two minor technical issues in the space of a week along with material price volatility.
This is particularly relevant right now as sentiment is extremely weak and many crypto investors have moved into the most defensive assets BTC and ETH over the last few weeks. As such one could say investors are heavily long ETH, at least on a relative basis versus other assets. Our view on the above is that these issues were minor and largely due to lack of preparedness on networks that were not at this point meant to be fully production ready and while confidence may have been temporarily impacted we do not see anything of structural concern.
Clearly this is now at fairly extreme levels, in our view pricing in technical risks and delay concerns and far from pricing in the bull case for the Merge. Note that the current forecast for the Ropsten testnet merge is for June 8th, after which the same process is scheduled to occur for the other two testnets.
While the various shadow forks over the past few weeks have seen few technical issues, it is distinctly possible that these testnet merges basically a dry run for the main event may well lead to various technical hiccups, and with increasing investor scrutiny especially in such a weak market, this could be a further source of volatility for ETH. Adding to the weight of the market weakness and concerns over technical risks is a deterioration in some of the fundamental indicators.
Although we feel this decline in activity is temporary, it understandably impacts valuations and forecasted staking yields post merge. No single method can be relied upon in a vacuum, but approaching the valuation from these four approaches tends to allow for some level of triangulation.
This is the analysis that is arguably the most persuasive, given the greater degree of near-term predictability. Similarly, we anticipate staking will increase dramatically, pulling circulating supply out of the market. This may result in some stakers queued at weaker initial yields given the validator queue limits the speed at which new ETH can be staked discussed below in the staking yield section but we believe stakers will be willing to accept this, especially if done through liquid staking platforms.
Even if this 6m per month does turn out to be optimistic, we still believe that the excess demand from staking inflows should be material. As a stretch case, we could assume some incremental retail and institutional demand if the Merge triggers a bull market for ETH in Q4. This will be met by supply, but only at a higher price. Alternatively, if we look at Q , short-term ownership went from 7.
In summary, as a base case we believe the market will see excess demand of 0. This suggests the investor base is fairly long-term oriented and stable, implying supply should be relatively tight from these cohorts and could exacerbate the price elasticity of any aggressive organic speculative demand.
Staking Yield Analysis We then move to staking yield, which allows us to view ETH like a bond or more likely a high yield stock. The secondary deflationary aspect is of particular importance here as most competitor L1s with high single digit yields are still inflationary. At current activity levels, and assuming 16m ETH staked at the Merge If instead we return to activity levels averaged over the last 6 months, this yield would rise to 7.
In time we would expect to see increased staking which will dilute yields. Over time though, with increased on chain activity and therefore revenue generation for stakers, yields should rise for a fixed level of staking. There is some uncertainty around how quickly this could be achieved due to the validator queue.
Basically, new validators must enter a queue as they come online a new validator is needed for every 32 ETH staked , which may lead to significant wait times for later stakers. The net effect would be weaker initial yields in these platforms, possibly subsidized with governance token incentives. Here we examine the DCF of total fees paid that are either burned or given out as staking yield.
The first variable is growth in L1 demand, which is complicated by the likely increase in L2 activity. We tend to think that Ethereum L1 activity will remain reasonably sticky and will gravitate toward higher value transactions especially if for example, institutional-level financial transactions migrate to Ethereum. This should limit the negative impact of mix shift, with lower value transactions initially first moving to L2s. Absent any improvement in efficiency, incremental activity would generally imply greater demand for L1 blockspace and therefore higher pricing, but this is unrealistic - both for the L1 and rollups.
There is likely to be a major improvement in throughput for Ethereum over the next two years due to sharding and we assume the efficiency benefits of Ethereum sharding begin to take effect from