Contrarian investing kenya

Successful investors, then, are far sighted and skilled as well as experienced in managing the stress of short-term disappointment in portfolio results. In examining the evidence, Mayer happens to draw heavily on the recent work of James Montier whom I consider to be one of the sharpest thinkers in the world of investment philosophy and strategy. In turn, this result relates to the sad situation that many investors find themselves in when relying on investment managers to look after their portfolios: investors tend to be disappointed by portfolio results, but this often is caused by their own action of disinvesting when the manager has performed poorly and reinvesting when the manager has shown strong gains.

This is exactly the same as buying shares when they are peaking and selling them only after they have collapsed, in a complete reversal of the fundamentals of successful investing. Value investing requires an enormous amount of self-discipline and nerves of steel. It is emotionally easier and psychologically seductive simply to follow the herd, to panic when performance is poor or prices are low and to become greedy when prices have risen.

This can be scary stuff for tentative investors. Investing is a game won by determined turtles, not hares. At any given point, one of the countries is going to be going bad. Why are you paying fees? I do not like paying fees. The fees in this particular case are not very expensive, 1. Look, and the reality is investing across all these jurisdictions would be extremely time-consuming.

I do not have the time to be monitoring all these stock markets. You just buy companies that have sound fundamentals, and you just wait for a rerating, and tag along their growth. But the reality is a lot of these indexes are mostly big Western companies that have exposure to Africa. And, two, they are often more linked to commodities. And, three, the companies come at higher valuations.

But when you invest locally on the stock markets, and go for local champions, the valuations are a lot lower and these companies are generally a lot more profitable. Now, there are multiple funds that offer investments in such markets. Why did I go with the African Lions Fund? Well, the guy actually lives in Tanzania. These guys are absolutely clueless. And once in a while, we get emails from Switzerland from some person, sitting in a nice office by Lake Geneva, telling us what to do.

They were just looking at numbers without the local context. And the reality is, in Africa, data is quite poor, the quality of data is quite poor. So the fact that the manager is living in Tanzania and is traveling across the continent was a huge plus for me. So obviously, none of this is financial advice, legal advice, investment advice. I, personally, have invested more than the minimum amount. I believe in the story. As soon as people start realizing the potential and the bombed-out valuations because of the low liquidity in these markets, which inherently is also a risk, just a little bit of money could have an outsized impact on the valuations of these companies.

Like, for example, Tim recently bought in some companies in Ghana, a country I know well, and that I really like. And he was able to buy it because someone was trying to unload a block. And, finally, what I liked is his local way of operating. So, for example, he recently bought into Nigeria. For the last few years, they have very strict capital controls.

So if you buy stocks in Nigeria, trying to get your money out is very complicated. You have to wait for months to get access to dollars to send them out of the country. Because of those capital controls, the valuations are utterly bombed out.

And if he were to sell, he would simply shift to a local gold ETF instead of keeping Nairas. So all of these things are really very local ways of operating, which he is doing from his base in Tanzania. I really recommend that you sign up to his free Africa investment newsletter. He travels throughout the continent and writes about the opportunities that he sees in the various countries.

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Viewer End can no Below a menu. The current rate of trading band momentum makes this target achievable towards the end of The longer-term outlook for oil suggests increasing prices but the rate of increase is slower than the rate of increase in JessesCafeAmericain reports What has been hidden will be revealed. Irrelevant: Goldman has become just one more glorified Jim Cramer: pumping anything that is green, and dumping anything in which there is even a modest CME margin hike driven correction.

The Danish Auditor General is on the case now as the scope of the crime has become obvious, and grown exponentially since it was first reported.? Originally discussed as a quasi-small-time dollar scam, the reality a year later is a lot larger: Europol is estimating a value on the case of 38 Billion Kroners and the values seem to keep going up.

While she was with the Danish government, she helped set up and manage a system where there were no background checks on the listings of permitted traders.? This removal of identification was done even though the EU requires at least passport.? In , Ms. Hedegaard removed the requirement for identification and in a very short period of time traders figured out the loopholes and started to back up the proverbial truck.? The traders have since been delisted as the scope of the crime becomes obvious.?

The fake but registered traders used made up, unique addresses for their business: in one famous case, a trader was listed as trading out of a parking lot in London.? In another, the trader took the name of a dead Pakistani national.?

The fraud centered on the use of VAT as a mechanism to generate real non-taxed cash flow.? The how to manual. He is a retired hedge fund manager.? He now writes about Global Macro Economic issues at jackhbarnes. His twitter feed can be reached here.? In his latest outlook piece, Corrigan dissects recent moves in the bond market, noticing a 6 sigma, three-decade statistical aberration when it comes to the 2s5s30s butterfly, and continuing through the implications of increasing bond vol on other risk assets a topic which we believe will receive much more focus in the coming weeks and months , on fund flows his views on the implications of the December Z.

When we note that this was preceded by a 3? Given that November saw the worst deficit on record in seasonal terms despite the pick-up in receipts attributable to the weak recovery , it was no surprise that the Ghosts of Bond Vigilantes Past were moving the furniture about at the prospect of another large slug of deficit finance. With the private sector still frying to pay down debt with one rather glaring exception we shall come to in a moment , government incontinence is the fuel on which the printing press will run.

As the following graphs, reveal, this has, indeed, become the primary mechanism for inflating prices in the US. The markets have not exactly been kind to European fixed income, either, with mid-strip contracts adding 75bps and a whole series of chart lines giving way. The battle for the Euro is by no means over yet. If past is in anyway prologue, the story for the next few quarters should be one of relative disappointment in economic performance, with the disappointment in economic performance, with the IfO and the business revenues to which the survey tends to respond peaking out and headline inflation potentially catching up.

Similarly, sales to the benighted Eurozone lie Contrast this lingering depression with the score for non-EZ exports only 4. If this last is the case, they might just be keeping their fingers crossed that the deceleration in real money supply already in evidence for some time past will temper the pace of industrial activity and even allow for an amelioration of the rate of price rises, as has typically happened in the past. In fact, after the country announced a record harvest for this year, it has become clear that the latest round of inflation is not so much about food supply as the double-digit food price hikes suggested.

It is high time to take the firewood from under the cauldron as 5. If this means, in short, that risk assets can continue to rise, pro tem, it also means that RISK itself will be climbing inexorably up the scale and on into the danger zone.

That said, the insurance file, which can be downloaded from Pirate Bay at the following link, is merely 1. Since Zero Hedge is read by quite a few hackers, we would like to extend the challenge to all to find the proper key to decrypt the insurance file and spill its contents to the general public.

One may be forgiven to believe that via its FX liquidity swap lines the Fed only bailed out foreign Central Banks, which in turn took the money and funded their own banks. Since the funding provided was in the form of ultra-short maturity commercial paper it was essentially equivalent to cash funding. Since once again we may have been a little too far ahead of the curve in demonstrating just who the biggest beneficiaries of the Irish taxpayer funded bailout are, we would like to repost an analysis from over a month ago presenting the key bondholders in Anglo Irish bank, who incidentally happen to be the cross-holders across most of the Irish capital structure, and which banks will likely be next in line for the bailout wagon.

Not surprisingly, there are some names here especially one which Zero Hedge readers are all too familiar with. Zero Hedge, October 17, It is deja vu all over again. To little media fanfare the dire financial situation in Ireland is nothing less than a repeat of the Lehman collapse in those dark days of September And despite rumors of haircuts for at least sub debtholders, actual facts validating this possibility remain unseen.

Which begs the question why is everyone in the world so terrified of taking mark to market losses on even a few billion in debt? Yet what is amusing is that inbetween the cracks of exclusively European-bank based senior and subordinated bondholders in such bankrupt banks as Anglo-Irish, a familiar name emerges: Goldman Sachs.

Contrarian investors must have both the time and money to wait, particularly because they could experience some short-term underperformance in pursuit of their contrarian strategy paying off. Warren Buffett is famous for being a value investor, but much of his approach to investing is also contrarian. Buffett has built his wealth by successfully finding pockets of opportunity within the stock market, and his stock picks are closely scrutinized for their validity and ultimate worth as investments.

Michael Burry, a hedge fund manager, was among a small group of investors who correctly predicted a bubble in the subprime housing market. As with Burry, other professional money managers and hedge fund managers have become famous for their contrarian bets, including Bill Ackman , George Soros , Ray Dalio , and Marc Faber.

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Powered by Contrarians with Curiosity Contrarians combine deep curiosity and boundless imagination to dare mighty things. Always seeking beyond what seem possible. Grit Contrarians have the fortitude to figure it out.