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Most of these guys check all the boxes — strong drivers of the golf ball, good ball strikers from the fairways and good scramblers. He was magnificent in every ball-striking statistical category last weekend — 3. His results timeline there is ridiculous: Between his strong play of late and his course history, there is a lot of buzz of Tiger finally getting over the hump and notching his first victory since Firestone CC is a very driver heavy course and while he was great off the tee at Carnoustie, it was mostly on the back of his stinger iron.
I also will look to fade him in matchups. Besides Tiger, the two golfers with the most buzz right now are Francesco Molinari and Tommy Fleetwood. Molinari has been blistering hot over the last two months, culminated by winning the Claret Jug at Carnoustie for his third win and fifth Top 2 finish in his last six tournaments. Everyone knows who Tommy Lad is from his fantastic performances at all three majors this year. Two guys without a lot of buzz that I like this week from a futures perspective are Jon Rahm and Justin Thomas.
Both golfers left a bad taste in bettors mouths after their dueling 2nd round collapses at Carnoustie led both to miss the weekend. Perhaps the most important changes, as detailed by Hanse himself will come from around these relatively small, sloped putting surfaces. Where they removed much of the rough that had come to surround the greens, redefining the false edges and run-off areas that require the most precise iron play or else face a tough up and down from a tight lie.
All of these changes intended to bring the course back in-line with how Maxwell had originally set the course up to be played. The course was always a tough one to get to grips with in the past. There are few really standout scoring opportunities around the course. As mentioned, there are just two par 5s and they are monsters, both measuring over yards and will play as three-shotters for much of the field.
The par 3s all look tricky and whilst some of the shorter par 4s may appear to be the best scoring opportunities, uneven lies on the undulating fairways and the severe slopes on many of the putting surfaces mean it will be difficult to get it close to the hole just about anywhere. Not a particularly ground-breaking opinion but the event promises to produce the type of tough all-round test that major championships should, and I think the golfer who finishes up holding the trophy on Sunday evening will have had to do virtually everything well.
There has been a strong recurring theme over recent years of first-time major winners, with 15 of the last 23 majors going to players claiming their first. Giving a bit of a mixed bag of results to that old adage that the PGA Championship is the easiest one in which to make your major breakthrough.
Every other winner in the last 12 years was either already a major champion or had previously recorded a top 10 finish. Winning majors is painstakingly difficult, and it usually takes players a good few years of gaining quality experience in them before they can taste victory. Further to this we can look at form in the build up to the event and in the year as a whole.
Of those last 12 winners, 8 had recorded a top 10 in their three most recent starts prior to winning the PGA Championship. With 3 of those possessing a victory. Showing a generally high standard of form going into the events for the winners.
This reminiscent of his year up until that point where he had a best of 21st in before winning the PGA Championship. Him being able to do this needing little explanation, he is Phil Mickelson after-all. Though had shown excellent form earlier that year, picking up two titles.
Whilst Jason Dufner in had two top 5s, two top 10s and a further four top 25s, similarly solid form to that shown by Walker. One note of caution in terms of many of those results would be that from , right up until , the PGA Championship immediately followed the WGC-Bridgestone Invitational at Firestone. Indeed this all changed in when the event adopted this new slot following the Byron Nelson, with Koepka coming 4th there, though because of the pandemic, the edition was rescheduled to follow the WGC-St Jude Invitational, another elite no-cut event.
Going back to this slot last year. The Memorial Tournament at Muirfield Village stands out somewhat, as a long championship course with bent greens and some steep run-off areas. Instantly standing out is The Masters.
There Maxwell is said to have played a big part in the design of the green complexes and though not quite as difficult as what we find at Augusta, they certainly play similarly. With many winners there having to produce quality with the short-game to get over the line. Thursday and Friday are set to be the windiest days of the event, with winds of around mph, before it is forecast to die down over the weekend.
Though still maintaining a constant, strong ish breeze. World 1 Scottie Scheffler will play his first major as a major champion, whilst Tiger Woods will once again tee it up following his hugely commendable return at The Masters. We have, however, had a few high profile withdrawals.
The most high profile of all coming from reigning champion Phil Mickelson, with the whole LIV Golf saga showing no signs of slowing. In addition to this we are missing Sungjae Im, who unfortunately caught covid last week on a rare return home to play an event in his native Korea and Paul Casey withdraws once again because of ongoing issues with a back injury. Selections Major Championship markets are amongst the most difficult to decipher during the year.
These events are often won by a select group of elite players and though that reduces the group of potential winners, all of these players are the shortest prices in the field and it is not always easy to decide which elite golfers to side with. Scheffler an obvious chance with the way his game is looking right now and Rahm once again looks dangerous following that confidence boosting win in Mexico, coupled with the fact that his short-game has looked in much better shape in his latest starts.
Without stating the obvious, I would do little to dissuade people from backing any of these guys this week. Though I have decided to steer away from them. Instead I start my selections in this second major of the year in the next group of players in the betting.
Jordan Spieth makes plenty of appeal but there was enough fallibility in his putting during the final round of the Byron Nelson, which ultimately stopped him from winning back-to-back titles last week, for me to avoid him and instead I start with a player of whom I expected to have a big year in these tournaments in , Patrick Cantlay. I tipped Cantlay up in my Masters ante-post preview this year. In that preview I stated he was a player who I expected to win a major this year, due to what looked like a newfound confidence and steely determination in contention in This saw him claim victories in the Memorial Tournament and in the BMW Championship, both times winning playoffs, particularly memorably in that BMW Championship, in which he ground Bryson DeChambeau into submission, holding his nerve to hole putts from all over the greens and win that marathon playoff.
He started this year in excellent form, reeling off finishes of in his opening four starts of Looking every bit a player who would have a strong chance by the time Augusta came around. Though following that 2nd place finish, where he lost in a playoff to Scottie Scheffler in the Phoenix Open, his form tapered off and he was only able to put up an underwhelming 39th place finish in The Masters.
Cantlay actually showed improvements in this area at Augusta, ranking 13th in approach in that 39th place finish, an unusually poor week on and around the greens the cause of his troubles. Carrying that quality over into the next week when leading the field in approach in his 2nd place finish at Harbour Town.
Once again the short-game not co-operating and ultimately what cost him victory, though such was the quality of his ball-striking that week, he was still able to finish just a shot behind Jordan Spieth.
But Woods rose to No. Then comes Scott, who for roughly 68 holes at the British Open a couple of weeks ago played so beautifully. It appeared that he had that Major all but locked up. But we underestimated the pressure of trying to win your first. But you can bet a win this week would be satisfying for Scott.
Neither player has done much over the last couple of months, with McIlroy arguably being the most disappointing player in the world during that stretch since an early win on the PGA tour this season. The field this week is certainly a good one, and will almost feel like a Major championship.
That is the purpose of the World Golf championships when they were formed years ago. Only once has the winning score bettered in the last ten years, when Dustin Johnson lapped the field by 5 shots in , shooting Possessing an average winning score of over those last ten renewals.
Whilst past winners often do everything at least adequately, they have excelled in different areas. Max Homa last year was excellent across the board but particularly good off-the-tee and on the greens, something which was very much the case for DJ in Whilst Adam Scott and Bubba Watson in and respectively produced all round quality tee-to-green and putted solidly. JB Holmes very much reliant on a superb putting week and quality iron play in Having said all that, one common theme amongst all players was their simple ability to hit the greens, with none of those past five winners ranking lower than 7th in greens-in-regulation.
On a tough, old fashioned golf course it may be a week where it pays to play close attention to this simple, old fashioned statistic. Though as of now, there is nothing but a mild breeze predicted throughout the four days. This, as always is subject to change. It will be interesting to see the talented Belgian back amongst the big boys with his newly returned confidence. A good record here in three visits and clearly in great nick but it would be such a huge ask for him to follow up that victory with another this week in such an esteemed field.
Jordan started lacking a little bit of spark but finally came to life at Pebble Beach two starts ago. Though there was still plenty of promise in terms of the shape his game looked to be in, as he gained strokes in every area across the two rounds played at Pebble Beach. Though his ball-striking was again in good shape over the two rounds before the week-long struggles with his short-game finally caught up with him.
His record in this event is strong, with a best of 4th in Possessing four other top 25s and has just two missed cuts in nine visits. He manages to drive the course solidly, despite his inaccuracies and the short game fires here more often than not. Which is sure to be a positive.
Just looking at the leaderboards from both events last year, we find Max Homa, Sam Burns and Viktor Hovland finishing no worse than 6th in either event. Strengthening the belief that the courses correlate nicely with one another. In addition to that are two 12th place finishes at the St Jude Invitational at TPC Southwind, another course where greens and fairways are tough to find and rather interestingly I thought Firestone CC, that hosted the WGC — Bridgestone Invitational until could offer further clues.
It regularly ranked as one of the toughest courses on tour tee-to-green during its tenure and Spieth finished 3rd there in , with finishes of 10th and 13th either side of that. He not only has the game but the mentality for this type of test.
Sungjae Im has been in excellent form since the back end of last year. The most recent of those quality performances was his previous start in the Farmers Insurance Open, when finishing 6th. Excelling with his short-game, ranking 1st in scrambling and 3rd around-the-greens this season. Generally possessing a good record at putting poa annua.
I believe that despite his underwhelming record here, he has the game to tackle everything Riviera can throw at him. I think that performance here last year was a bit of a breakthrough moment for Burns. However, just five starts later he did go on to pick up his first PGA Tour title in impressive fashion, with a three-stroke victory over Keegan Bradley at the Valspar Championship. Going on to add another title to that in , when he won the Sanderson Farms Championship at the back end of the year.
He was in fine form at the end of last year, following the win at Jackson Country Club with five top 20s in his next five starts, three of them top 10s.
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