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They reflect all of the information available to punters. This may be drawn from a wide variety of sources — opinion polls, press coverage, personal contacts and so on. The point has been made elsewhere that punters are not representative of the population as a whole.
Indeed, not all those betting need to act in an informed way. So long as there are sufficient well informed punters willing to place their bets where they see an opportunity for gain based on the current odds, the odds will come to reflect the underlying chance that the event occurs with the small complication that bookies always build in a profit margin.
Will the odds change substantially over the remainder of the campaign? It seems unlikely that they can change sufficiently to suggest that a Leave outcome is more likely than a Remain outcome. Nothing in the history of betting odds suggests that a swing of 24 percentage points is possible over a three-week period.
Ecosse and effect The Scottish referendum is a useful precedent. Events during the last few weeks included some surprises which perhaps punters had not anticipated. Most important was the closing of the gap between the Yes and No polling. This had a dramatic effect on media coverage and on the politics during the run-up to the vote.
But then the upward momentum petered out and by the time of the vote the odds had fallen back to more or less where they had started. Betting probability of a Yes vote in Scottish referendum Source: oddschecker. On June 5, 18 days before the Brexit vote, the probability of a Leave vote stood at 0. In Scotland, the probability of a Yes vote at the same point before the independence referendum was slightly lower at 0.
While the implied probability of the UK leaving the EU is currently higher than the implied probability of Scotland leaving the UK was at that stage, it will take a bigger and more sustained change of events in the last few days of the campaign than that which happened in Scotland to persuade bookies to offer anything like evens on a vote for Brexit. To see whether Johnson, Gove and co can make it happen, bookmark this piece. The graphic on the EU referendum betting odds will keep updating as we near polling day.
Betting exchange Betfair quotes a best available for a poll to take place before , with available on it taking place before the end of this year. However, it should be pointed out that bookies believe it is still unlikely to happen. Odds of equate to a 33 per cent chance.
But punters have also heavily backed Britain crashing out with no deal amid reports of the government stockpiling food and drugs and preparing to close a motorway in Kent for the purposes of turning it into a huge lorry park. However, the bookies got the last referendum just as wrong as the pollsters did.
Should the rerun be called, the odds are firmly in favour of Britain performing a EU-turn and remaining.
They have made the Remain camp the odds-on favourite since February when David Cameron set the 23 June date for the vote. Recommended Read more Remain '80 per cent likely' to win EU referendum vote Recent form suggests the bookies. They got the Scottish referendum right when some polls suggested a Yes vote, and in the general election they consistently made the Tories the largest party, even when some polls suggested a Labour victory.
And although they took a hammering from those who bet on an outright Conservative majority, the bookies did at least shorten the odds in the days immediately before voting. Which means it may be of more than passing significance that bookies are now telling The Independent they are very confident of a Remain vote and may even make the In camp still stronger favourites in the final run-up to the vote.
And possibly over the next couple of days the Remain odds will shorten even further. Which celebrities support Brexit and which support Remain? For our children and their children we should be facing the problems of the world together and not alone. No country by itself. Vote Remain on 23rd June. But there isn't. The Euro being a perfect example… I do not want to be dragged into the kind of Federal State that this present EU is pushing for - with the UK's voice getting smaller and smaller.
Recently, bookmakers have been slashing their odds on a second EU referendum as the pressure mounts on the prime minister to give the public a second chance. Get this, we now even have a cabinet minister just for stockpiling food. This news left people worried about their flights to Europe in the event of a no-deal Brexit.
All in all, the EU referendum has caused a complete mess in the UK. Is a second referendum likely? More recently, the question of whether a second referendum is likely seems to be coming to the forefront. You may have seen the huge march in central London that took place last weekend. There was a huge turnout with over , people marching through the streets of London backing a second referendum before the UK is set to leave the EU on March 29, There was a huge mix of people there, from young students to older individuals.
Having said that, Theresa May has continuously stated her refusal for a second referendum.
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