Value horse method betting system

At this stage, the authors of many of the books that I have read in respect of betting on horse racing tend to explain this definition using the example of the flip of a coin. However, 2 horse races are thankfully rare in real life, so my preference is to use the analogy of the rolling of a normal 6 sided dice. Unfortunately for punters, bookmakers are successful profit-making operations that always build in a profit margin within the odds that they quote for every event.

However, in real life, bookmakers are not infallible as their teams of risk managers and odds compilers are unable to wave a magic wand to produce accurate prices for every race and have to make educated guesses as to the probability of each horse winning the race. Whilst in the long term these estimates are unerringly accurate when considered from an overall perspective, they regularly make mistakes which can be exploited by punters, who are able to identify when the odds for a runner are over-generous.

The Importance of Backing Value Selections The above scenario clearly shows that for a punter to achieve a long term profit it will be necessary for them to frequently place wagers on horses at odds that are greater than the underlying probability of the runner winning the race. When in reality even short-priced favourites in uncompetitive maidens and stakes races can offer value when the odds on offer understate the probability of the horse winning the race. Many of the books that I have read that attempt to provide punters with the tools required to join the exclusive long term winners club extol the virtues of calculating the probability for each runner winning the race.

From this, the punter can produce a personal odds list tissue prices that can be compared to the prices that are available from the bookmakers and exchanges, which in theory will highlight horses that can be backed at value odds.

Betting Tissue Would the creation of a betting tissue help in finding winners? However, I have yet to read a book that provides an adequate explanation of how the calculation can be achieved in an objective manner. Most of the explanations recommend that the punter will be required to consider a multitude of factors, but fail to list the most likely criteria that should be included, whilst a few publications have provided a few suggestions in respect of the criteria, but have failed to explain a suitable method for turning this information into a probability figure for each runner in a race.

This in my opinion is about as useful as a cookbook that tells the reader the list of ingredients to produce a dish but fails to explain how the ingredients are to be mixed and most importantly both the oven setting and time required to cook the dish. The stock advice tends to be that the Punter should experiment producing probability figures and tissue prices for each horse in a race for a period of time during which they should become more proficient with experience.

By backing all the value runners, any draw bias is being covered and an advantage is gained on both sides of the field. There may be one horse who loves to lead and will have an excellent chance if getting an uncontested pace. In the same race there may be a hold up runner who will go very close if getting a good pace to aim at.

If nothing takes on the front runner, then its odds will be massive value. On the other hand if another runner goes forward and decides to take on the front runner and causes a pace duel, this will significantly enhance the chance of the hold-up horse. There is accumulative value to be had by backing both runners. Unknown on the Ground Unknown on the Ground Ground extremes can create multiple value, with certain horses unproven under conditions.

A hurdlers may have racked up several wins on good to firm ground in the summer but then encounters soft ground after a break in the winter. If the horse handles the change in the going, then his form is better than the rest of the field and victory looks likely. However, it is a big if. There is also one horse in the race who loves soft ground but whose form is not as strong. If the other runner does not handle the conditions, then this one is likely to take advantage.

Final Thoughts Never be afraid to back more than one horse in a race. If value exists, then it would be remiss not to capitalise on it, regardless of how many runners are attractively priced. In the long run this will produce consistent profits. Related Articles Race Types, Class and Handicapping Race types, class and handicapping are all important things to consider when betting on horses.

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This is because it is the easiest way to make money from value betting. How to Find Value Bets? What is the simplest form of value bet that you can find? It can be where a bookmaker is offering higher odds than those available on Betfair. This can be done in a couple of different ways, really.

For instance, you could use a simple piece of arbitrage software. Alternatively, you could manually compare the odds. Example: — A quick check of the Arbitrage software throws up this horse racing bet — Podemis to win the Kempton.

Sporting Bet odds 8. Betfair lay odds are 7. Head over to Sporting Bet to check the odds are correct. Then you simply place a back bet on the horse to win the race with Sporting Bet. We know that the odds of 7. You placed the bet at odds 8. It works out as a rating of Anything above is classed as a value bet.

Another example of how this can be done is with a dutching strategy. In this case, you need to find dutch bets between sharp bookmakers and soft bookmakers. You then place your bets on the selection that has higher odds than the sharp bookmaker. Dunfermlin: Pinnacle 1.

You would back Dumfermlin with Betfair Sportsbook at odds 2. Pinnacle have a margin built in too their odds. To work out the value, open the Dutching calculator. Enter the following information: — Selection 1 — Dunfermlin Betfair Sportsbook odds 2.

This example, a return of 5. Place enough of those and over the long term you will make a healthy profit. If you use the comparison websites, it takes a lot more time trawling through the events. How can you best make money in this way? There is no need to place a lay bet when you choose this strategy.

The bookies pay more for the place than the win-odds imply they should. If you pay close attention to the difference in the place odds, you can see the loophole in action. The edge using this strategy is massive! The rating is Compare that to the Sporting Bet example above With the value strategy, you simply place a straight back bet on any horse with a rating above Horse Racing Value Bets Horse racing arbitrage is another way of finding value in your bets.

Again, there is no need for a lay bet to be placed. This involves finding a horse that has higher odds than the Betfair lay odds. With this value strategy, you simply place a straight back bet on any horse that meets the criteria above. Betfair Value Bets What about the idea of value bets on Betfair? When football prices move on Pinnacle sharply then you should back the team on Betfair.

Betfair can take a few minutes to catch up. Here is the criteria I use: — Odds below 2. You need to make sure you back before any major moves. Also, you should never chase it. Yet, it still works well and can bring in consistent profits over time. Value Betting Systems Should you pay for a value betting system to help you out? If so, which one should you choose to go with? There are a few different options that you might like to look at.

One value betting system worth investigating is called Trademate Sports. It is a slick and professional service that has value betting software. They identify good value odds. They are open about the fact that your bookie accounts can get suspended with this strategy. What about the potential profits? Is it worth it? Are you going to win a decent amount of cash? Their Trademate bot states that there has been a So, their track record is pretty impressive.

However, it should be pointed out that it is a fairly expensive system to subscribe to. You will also need a pretty big starting bank. If you want a safer approach with less risk then there are other systems you might prefer. This one is more suitable for someone who is happy to invest a good deal of money. Having said that, there is a 7 day free trial if you want to test it out. Who Does Value Betting Suit? Once you have bonus banned accounts, then you can start looking at value betting.

You will make a lot more money hammering the bonuses than you will from value bets. Also, if you choose to work out the odds on your own then it is a fairly long and complicated process. So, it could suit someone who loves crunching numbers. As we saw earlier, you can also use in-depth knowledge of a certain part of a sport. If you are an expert in a certain field then this is way of using it to your advantage.

You will need a fair amount of time to do this well using either of those last two approaches. What about paying for a value betting system? This is clearly a method that takes up less of your time. It could work for you if you are short of time or just want an easier approach. However, if you use the line grinding approach and place a large enough sample of bets, you are likely to come out with a healthy profit.

You will want to be confident of managing your bank roll wisely. All of this means that there are types of value bet strategy for most people. Is it right for you? Hopefully, understanding the different options helps you to make a good decision.

Value Betting Conclusion There is no doubt that value bets offer you a way of placing smart bets. This can prove to be a very profitable approach. Plenty of people love to make money with this kind of betting. To work out whether to try it you should consider your goals. Do you want a way of beating the bookies that can work wonders? Systematic and disciplined value betting is the key to beating the bookies and making consistent and long term profits in sports betting!

Examples of Value Bets A great example to show how Value Bets work and are calculated is by using the probabilities calculated by FiveThirtyEight, a publication with a speciality in statistics and polling. For many sporting events, FiveThirtyEight has begun calculating and sharing their own probabilities. This is a great example we can use to explain our core concept. Essentially, we are just calculating the inverse of the probability to find the lowest odds at which we could still be making a profit on the event, the Minimum Profitable Odds.

There are your Minimum Profitable Odds. Any bet above those odds is profitable. If we find such a bet, we have found a bet with value. A Value Bet. How to Find Value Bets? After we have found our Minimum Profitable Odds, we move on to the next step. Comparing available odds using a bookmaker comparison tool. Two such tools are:.

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